Sunday, September 2, 2012

Anatomy of a Draft!


I play in a 10 Team, 4 Player Keeper League.  This is my 6th season playing in this particular league.  Starting roster requirements....QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, Def.  10 bench.  Are able to IR players for minimum of 2 weeks and as long as they are on the injury report.  5 points per passing TD.  .5 per catch.

My keepers entering the draft:
QB: Tom Brady (acquired for 2-1 this season)
RB: Ryan Mathews (acquired with Michael Turner earlier this summer in exchange for MJD)
WR: Hakeem Nicks (drafted in 1st Round of 2010 Coo Coo Draft)
WR: Roddy White (acquired late last season for a 2nd round pick in 2012)

We are able to trade draft picks including future picks in this league.  Here is a list of my draft picks entering the draft for the 2012 season.  I made the playoffs last season.  But got knocked the hell out in the first round.  Tebow ran out of gas.  I rode him like a donkey last season.  The picks...
1-8
3-7
3-8
4-3
5-8
6-3
7-2
7-8
8-3
9-8
10-3
11-10
13-3
14-3
14-4

Pre Draft thoughts.  I need a RB, bad.  Really bad.  REALLY, REALLY BAD.  Ryan Mathews (the China Doll) got hurt on his first freaking carry of the preseason.  Seriously?  And he's the only RB on my roster at this point, and might be out for the first month of the season.  FML!  Picking at the back end of the first round doesn't help.  RB's go early and often in this league.
After guessing at who would keep what, and what the 7 teams might do in front of me, I came up with a list of about 5 RB's that I thought might be available in the first round of the draft that I was comfortable taking.  But I also thought there was a good possibility that all 5 of those RB's might be off the board by the time I got on the clock.  So I put out the message on the league board that I might be looking to trade back into the second round prior to the draft starting.  I was not taking Reggie Bush in the first round of the Coo Coo Draft.  Was not going to do it.  Couldn't live with myself.  The Dolphins were god awful last season.  And they are going to be worse this season.  And that was a career year for Bush.  I want nothing to do with that mess.

Coo Coo Draft starts.  Couple of trades.  Here are the 5 RB's I was comfortable selecting in the first round: Trent Richardson, Fred Jackson, Steven Jackson, Doug Martin, and Ahmad Bradshaw.  All 5 of those RB's go along with a pair of WR's.  My worst nightmare realized.  I tinker with the idea of taking Hernandez.  But that would almost force me to go RB with about 3 of my next 4 picks.  And it's getting pretty ugly at RB.  Quick.  Making matters worse, is that I do not have a 2nd round pick.  Shipped that off to get Brady.  I decide to put the pick up on the block.  Settled on 2-4 with a 7th Rounder for 2013.  I did a couple of mock drafts, trying to figure out who would go where.  I got none of the 10 first rounders right.  The only thing that I predicted correctly was that the 5 RB's would be gone and that I needed to trade out.  Bet your bottom dollar that I will do more mocks next season prior to the Coo Coo Draft.

I get on the clock in round 2 (pick 2-4) with Reggie Bush still staring at me. The other guy I am looking at is the Law Firm, BenJarvis Green-Ellis.  I had BGE a couple of years ago and was pleased with his production.  I trust him and Cincy showed him the money.  I pass on Bush and reach for BGE.  Reggie's ADP is higher, but I just don't want him.  I have a RB.  Although it is a bottom of the barrel #2.  Which will be playing as my #1, to start the season.  Ugh.

No second round pick.  Brady will be worth it.  Hopefully he will pay for himself by winning that bet with CoP this season.  If not, I see it as him costing me two 2nd's.  I actually value him at 2 #1's.  Sorry Johnny.

I have back-to-back picks in the 3rd round (picks 3-7 & 3-8).  I need to get another RB, but I'm shocked to see that 2 WR's I am very fond of still on the board.  I expected both these guys to go in either the 1st or 2nd round.  I happily pick Denver's Demaryius Thomas to be my #3 WR, and SD's Vincent Jackson (no stranger to the MiLiTiA roster) to be my #1 reserve WR.  By doing this, I will not need to carry very many WR's, as I have 4 pretty solid guys in White, Nicks, Thomas, and Jackson.  I can take more swings at the RB pinata later on in my draft.  But I still want Sidney Rice to round out my receiving core.  Because I had him that one year he was good, he's undervalued, he's finally starting to get healthy, and well, he's a Seahawk.  But that's for later.

All the long, I have kept a close eye on the QB situation.  Matt Ryan is still on the board at 4-3.  Thought about it for a second in the first, no pick in the second, and decided to get him in the 4th if he was still there while selecting those WR's in the 3rd round.  Ryan has skyrocketed up the ranks late in the summer.  He has Roddy White and Julio Jones at WR, future HOF Tony Gonzalez at TE, and an aging and sputtering Michael Turner at RB.  I've heard people were selecting him as high as the 2nd or 3rd round in some drafts.  So to get him in the 4th, at the 79th pick of the draft, which is like the 6th round of a standard 12 team draft, is a steal, in my opinion.  I didn't plan on taking any backup QB prior to the draft.  Part of the appeal to trade for Brady. I could simply pick up somebody, anybody during his bye week (Week 9) off the waiver-wire, and leave more roster spots for sleepers.  Which at this point looks like TE and RB, because I passed on those positions again.  Only other QB I tinkered with selecting at any point in the draft was Andrew Luck.  Nice pick Jer.

I have waited long enough.  I need RB's.  I need them in the worst way.  So at 5-8 I take another player that has been moving up the draft ranks late in the summer, Cedric Benson.  He signed with the Green Bay Packers and is expected to start.  Good enough for me.  But I am not a 100% sure how long he is going to start and he is not going to be playing on 3rd down.  He could be packing his bags tomorrow.  He is not the smartest guy.  He gets into trouble.  The Packers also have Starks, Green, and Kuhn up their on the Frozen Tundra.  I need more RB's.  Plural.  But I also need a TE.

In the 6th round (6-3), I take New England RB, Steven Ridley.  Ridley showed promise last season.  And the Pats let Benjarvis Green-Ellis walk out the front door.  But I don't like the thought of having to start both Brady and Ridley in the same backfield.  Fine in New England, but not in MiLiLaNi.  Gonna have to take more swings at RB.  I see him as a reserve RB.  Don't really like the thought of starting him.  But kind of the break glass in case of emergency kind of dude.  Let's hope the glass stays intact. 

At 7-2 I take Greg Olsen, the TE out of Carolina.  No more Shockey to share stats with.  But I think I might have to take 2 or 3 TE's and hope one of them hits or outproduces his draft position.  Pretty sure I have the worst TE situation in the league.  Oh well.  

In the 7th round (7-9), I take Rashad Jennings.  As I write this, MJD has just reported to Jaguars camp.  Crap.  I would not have picked RJ here if this news had broken a day earlier.  Thanks MJD!  I hate you more than ever!  I was hoping he would hold out till Week 10, or at least until Ryan Mathews got back on the playing field.  But I think I can start Jennings in Week 1.  MJD will need some time to get into shape and get his timing down with the (new) offense.  But I do think that Jennings has at least played his way into a timeshare situation in Jacksonville.  He's looked good in the preseason and led the NFL in rushing in that time period, while averaging over 5 yards a carry.  I don't think the Jaguars want to rely as heavily on MJD as they have in the past.  To keep him healthy and so that they won't have to pay him more based on his production.  I think MJD's holdout was nothing short of retarded.  He had no leverage.  None.

During the 8th round (8-3), I take my second TE, Jermaine Gresham.  I think he has some nice size and a good skill set, but the production isn't there yet.  I want him to be my back-up TE.  Dude has potential.

As I am perusing the rank lists, I notice that 3 players I am interested in taking are not there when I do a search for them.  Ryan Williams, Mikel Leshoure, and Sidney Rice.  The commish then releases a handful of players into the rank list that had been stuck on another teams IR.  OOOopPps.  These players should have been selected at this point in most drafts.  Good fortune if a couple of them make it to me.  But my pick is about 5 away.  Please let one or two of these guys fall to me!

In the 9th round (9-8), I make the total homer pick of Sidney Rice.  Go Seahawks!  Ryan Williams goes right after him.  Damn.  I should have took Williams first.  Oh well.  Leshoure is still on the board.  The Seahawk fan got the best of me.  :(

A few picks later, at 10-3, I take Mikel Leshoure.  Somebody has to run the ball in Detroit.  And I aint interested in taking Jahvid Best at any time today, tomorrow, or anytime soon.  I totally wasted a 1st round pick on that guy last year.  Not again.  Not gonna be on my team.  Nope.  Best is dead to me.  His brains are scrambled.

I continue to let other teams fill their starting line ups and  pass on kickers and defenses.  At 10-11, I pick my 3rd TE, Brent Celek.  I can cut one of the 3 TE's at some point.  Doubt I'll carry all 3 for more than the first month of the season, or at least until 2 separate themselves from the other one.  Or I might have to trade for a TE if all 3 of these dudes flop.  We'll see.

At 13-3, I take the Buffalo Bills Defense.  I like their schedule the first couple of weeks, and they brought in some nice players via free agency.

At 14-4, I take Alex Hennery, the kicker out of Philadelphia.  If he doesn't work out, I'll hit the waiver-wire for a kicker.  No big deal.  I did want Seabass, but somebody else took him earlier in the draft.

At 14-4 I take the Denver Broncos Defense.  They play against a lot of weak teams in the AFC West.  I'm hoping I can find a good match-up from week-to-week with my two defenses.  Or I could hit the waiver-wire for a replacement.  No big deal.

Following the draft I IR a couple of players and pick up Johnathan Dwyer, Alfred Morris, and Josh Gordon.  Dwyer has been making noise in Steelers camp.  I think the Steelers are gonna let Mendenhall walk out the door at the end of the season.  I think they would like Redman or Dwyer to step up and take that job.  My hope is that its Dwyer.  Morris is in the mix for the starting job/playing time in Washington.  Shanahan is satan when it comes to RB's.  I see him as a temporary depth player.  Gordon is intriguing.  Potential to be a #1 WR in Cleveland.  But that's the problem.  He play's in Cleveland.

My roster right now stands at:
QB's: Tom Brady & Matt Ryan
RB's: Ryan Mathews, BenJarvis Green-Ellis, Steven Riley, Cedric Benson, Rashard Jennings, Johnathan Dwyer and Alfred Morris.
WR's: Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, Sidney Rice and Josh Gordon
TE's: Greg Olsen, Jermaine Gresham and Brent Celek
K: Alex Henery
Def/ST: Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos

Best starting line-up
QB-Tom Bray
RB1-Ryan Mathews
RB2-BenJarvis Green-Ellis et all
WR1-Roddy White
WR2-Hakeem Nicks
WR3-Demaryius Thomas
TE-Greg Olsen et all
K-Alex Henery et all
Def-Buffalo Bills et all

I will continue to try and persuade Ashley to trade Darren Sproles to me.  :)  Come on Ash.  What's it gonna take?

Like the team.  Potential pool for keepers include Brady, Ryan, Mathews, Green-Ellis, Leshoure, Dwyer, White, Nicks, Thomas, Jackson, and Gordon.

Hopefully contend for the Patrick Division and a potential playoff birth!

COO COO!

Good luck everybody!  May the best team win!